What Is Quantitative Forecasting?

预测is one way to understand the effectiveness of your sales teams and the activities they undergo to drive revenue and achieve success.

该过程可以帮助您了解自己做的正确的事情，做出明智的业务决策，并设定现实的目标，以帮助您的公司发展和维持成功。bob全站app

Some forecasting techniques, called quantitative forecasting, involve math, like adding up month-to-month sales or using averages to predict future revenue. This post will go in-depth into what quantitative forecasting is, different methods and techniques to use, and examples that will help you apply the formulas.

Quantitative forecasting is different from qualitative forecasting because it is objective and based on statistics and math, while the latter focuses on subjective information like expert insight and opinions.

这种预测可能会由销售运营团队完成，因此他们可以获得高级概述，并与利益相关者传达必要的信息和未来战略。

Depending on your business needs, there are various quantitative strategies to focus on.

Quantitative Forecasting Methods & Techniques

Below we’ll discuss common quantitative forecasting methods that will help you understand business performance.

天真的预测

The naive method is a straightforward technique that assumes you will continue to perform as you have in the past. This technique doesn’t account for trends, patterns, or other influences, it is simply making estimates based on past performance data.

例如，如果您上个季度获得了100,000次，那么您的天真预测会说您本季度还将赚取100,000。它需要最少的计算，并且此方法通常被用作了解您的业务如何发展的起点。

Seasonal Forecasting

季节性预测,也称为季节性indexing, uses historical seasonal data to predict what the same future seasons would look like.

例如，在过去三年中，使用季节的数据来了解即将到来的一年的哪个赛季。季节可能是与您的业务或标准基准相关的特定时期，例如数月和季度。

随着所有企业经历变化，该模型可以帮助准备一个您知道已经很困难的季节的策略，因此您仍然可以达到目标并根据需要执行。

To conduct a seasonal forecast, you want to gather all of the data available about business performance during the specific seasons you’re hoping to analyze. The result of this forecast will give you an average of what performance looks like per individual season. Once you have your data, this is the formula to use:

（季节性数据 +季节性数据）/比较季节数

Here’s an example of what that would look like:

(Season A + Season A + Season A)/ 3 = Average performance in every season A

It might be easier to follow with a numerical example, and we’ll go over onehere。

收入运行率

技术预测你的年收入EOY will look like based on performance metrics from the time passed.

To run this forecast, you need to collect performance data you’re hoping to project, like revenue or number of deals closed over a specific period, and multiply that number by the number of periods that there will be in the year you’re forecasting. This period can be quarterly, monthly, or a time that makes sense for your business. Here is the formula:

Revenue in Specific Period x Total Number of Periods in one Year = Revenue Run Rate

We’ll cover a numericalexample here。

As sales can change quickly, it’s important to note that your revenue projections from the middle of the year may not be accurate at the end of the year. If you’re in a volatile market, the revenue run rate may not be the most effective way to forecast your performance.

Historical Growth Rate

历史增长率用于通过比较特定指标（例如收入总计或封闭交易）来了解您业务的增长率。如果业务绩效显着增长，并且您想了解变化有多大，则通常使用此方法。这是公式：

(Present Value - Past Value) / Past Value x 100

Here’s an example using words that may make it easier to understand:

（第3季度收入 - 第1季度收入） /第1季度收入x 100

Below we’ll go over anumerical example。

Linear Regression

Linear regression is the most detailed forecast on this list, as it requires in-depth analysis. It is used to understand how certain variables in your sales process affect sales performance and forecast what sales would look like over time based on those same factors. Here is the formula:

Y = BX + A

In this equation, X is your sales activity (independent variable), Y is your sales performance (dependent variable), b is the slope of the line, and a is the point of interception.

如果您像我一样，数学很复杂。由于线性回归是一个相当涉及的过程，因此使用诸如Google Sheets之类的工具来运行您的回归和本指南will show you how. We’ll also cover an examplehere。

Quantitative Forecasting Examples

Let’s go over some examples of some of the forecasting techniques mentioned above.

Seasonal Forecasting Example

I want to run a seasonal forecast to understand average quarterly performance so I understand the targets I should strive to meet and rise above this coming year. I want to use three years of historical revenue data, and here’s my data set:

To get my seasonal index, I would add up the total amount of revenue for the same quarter each year and divide that number by the number of years. This is what my equation would look like to get the average performance for Q1:

(150 + 125 + 150) / 3

My seasonal index for Q1, the average amount of money made during Q1, is 141. This coming year, I would aim for 141 or higher in revenue to continue on the same path as before. You would repeat the same process to forecast each quarter.

收入运行率示例

您可以通过使用已经发生的一段时间的收入数据来获得运行率。如上所述，这可以是您的企业用作型号的季度，每月或特定时期。这是对公式的复习：

Revenue in Specific Period x Total Number of Periods in one Year

Let’s say it’s March, and my total revenue this month is $120,000. I want to forecast EOY totals using this data, and this would be my equation and result:

120000x 12

我的预计收入运行率是1,440,000。

Historical Growth Rate Example

Historical growth rate helps you calculate the exact rate of growth after a successful period. Let’s say that your business was previously worth $150, but now it’s worth $160. Here is the equation that would give you your rate of growth:

(160 - 150) / 150 x 100

Your growth rate would be 6.6%.

线性回归示例

线性回归可帮助您了解销售过程中的某些因素（自变量）如何影响销售绩效（因变量）。

假设我想了解是否有更多网站访问与销售增加直接相关。如果我的结果是肯定的，我可以将这一发现并共同努力开展活动，以引入更多网站流量，进而增加销售额。

The table below is a sample data for this experiment:

由于这是一个相当涉及的过程，我将使用Google表来运行此预测，这是一个step-by-step guideon how to do so. After I run my regression, I get the following numbers:

I elected to start the forecast with number 150 because it was higher than any of the historical total site visits, so results would show me if actually increasing site visits would close more deals.

我的结果表明，是的，增加网站流量直接与销售量增加直接相关。有了这种理解，我可以与营销合作制定策略以推动更多的网站流量。

Regardless of the method you choose, quantitative forecasting should paint a picture of the effectiveness of your sales techniques. Your results should show you that you’re on the right track or let you know that something in your process is worth updating so you can continue to achieve business success.