为什么您的销售预测很糟糕（以及该怎么办）

Sales forecastingis an important activity for every sales force. Yet, few organizations are happy with the accuracy of their forecasts. Despite spending a lot of time and effort on the task, revenue predictions frequently, well, suck. And no amount of pressure from senior leadership seems to improve the issue.

So, what causes all these terrible forecasts? And, more importantly, what can you do to改善预测结果？Vantage Point对预测和发现了两个基本问题进行了研究。

你是Using the Wrong Forecasting Framework

Many sales organizations use a forecasting framework that doesn’t reflect the way their salespeople sell.Our research显示85％的B2B公司根据估计交易规模的机会管道使用预测方法，陷入公司销售流程的阶段，分配了赢得的可能性，并在未来的近日预测。bob全站app

留出的many执行如何执行该机会预测方法的问题，让我们专注于更基本的问题，即筹码许多销售预测：您应该使用除此经典管道预测方法以外的预测框架。

我们对62个全球销售组织的研究发现了74％，相信其预测应基于某些东西其他than a pipeline of opportunities; however, only 34% of those same companies use alternative approaches.

如果您的预测基于与您的销售队伍不相关的模型，很容易看出您的预测吮吸为什么。你是开发预报using data and assumptions that don’t reflect what’s actually happening in the field.

It would be like trying to read this article while moving your eyes from right to left rather than left to right. Similarly, many companies try to shoehorn their forecasts into an opportunity-based model with stages and percentages when it just doesn’t make sense to do so. Unsurprisingly, these forecasts don’t make sense either.

Alternate ways to conduct a revenue forecast

至少有另外两种销售预测方法被证明是恢复更好的结果：

• Account level forecasting:Use this if you have a business model where a high number of deals flow from a handful of existing customers.
• Territory level forecasting:Use this if your salespeople cover geographies with dozens or even hundreds of accounts.

So, if you’re using a traditional, opportunity-based forecasting model and suffer from erratic forecasts, consider whether you should be using a different method to develop your forecasts -- one that more closely reflectsthe selling motion of your sales team。否则，您将继续在一个永远不会产生更好的结果的活动中投资大块时间。这比实际预测糟糕了。

你是Making Random Assumptions

第二次缺点销售预测是随机假设。无论您的预测方法如何，您都需要根据一系列假设进行一些数学 - 以及这些假设是重要的。

例如，如果您将预测基于机会的管道基础，则必须承担成交规模，获胜的可能性和近日。如果这些假设是脱离的，您的预测也会如此。

The surprising thing here is sales organizations have plenty of historical data to inform the most likely deal size, win rate, and sales cycle length for a particular type of opportunity. Yet, salespeople are allowed to plug in their best guesses -- as viewed through their optimistic eyes.

我曾经认识一名销售人员，他们总是声称他的杰出提案有75％可能关闭。当我询问他是否实际赢得了他的提案中的75％，他回应了，“不，可能更像30％。“哦，那个预测看起来怎么样？让我猜猜。

如果您有历史数据，可以帮助消除喂食您预测的假设的随机性，请使用它 - 特别是如果您在预测中有大量优惠。

The law of large numbers dictates the variations in individual deals will average themselves out to the most likely outcome. Sure, that $100,000 proposal might be 75% likely to close on December 31st -- but, probably not.

收紧预测

There are many factors that influence the accuracy of a sales forecast. If you’re basing yours on the wrong methodology and you’re populating that with faulty assumptions, you’re off to a bad start.

向您的预测中添加一些严格的严格将在将其作为通信和规划工具中提高其价值来进行很长的路要走。每个人都希望更准确的预测，每个人都花了很多时间做到这一点。有些人只是比其他人更好 - 通过设计。